Emma Blain
THE FIRST and one of the most intriguing Fine Gael selection conventions for the next general election takes place in the new year (January 15) in Dublin Bay South (DBS), where the constituency that was once graced by Sir Garret FitzGerald no longer holds a Fine Gael TD. But the really interesting aspect of the selection process is whether Emma Blain – currently a councillor in Glencullen-Sandyford, which is in the Dáil constituency of Dublin Rathdown – can clamber on to the ticket.
The plan by FG’s national executive is for one candidate to be selected at the convention and that candidate is councillor James Geoghegan, owner of the most distinguished legal pedigree this side of the Old Bailey. But the shine has come off the svelte barrister since Labour’s Ivana Bacik beat him at the 2021 by-election to replace FG’s Eoghan Murphy, who retired hurt after his disastrous tenure as housing minister.
Accordingly, the leadership will decide some time after the January convention whether to add Emma Blain to the ticket in a strategy to assist in fulfilling the financially vital gender quota and also to assist Geoghegan with transfers. (The prospect of taking a second seat is regarded as out of the question, regardless of what any handler might like to peddle in the months before the next general election.)
Blain, however, does not see it this way at all and believes that winning a seat is eminently possible, especially as she would be a better rival than Geoghegan for the many middle-class female voters in DBS – of whom there will be plenty among disillusioned Green Party/Eamon Ryan supporters. Blain is also more likely to take votes off Bacik than Geoghegan. Expect much guff from Emma about winning two seats for the party should she get on to the ticket.
Emma Blain is not actually a blow-in to DBS as both mummy (a local party member) and daddy (principal of the Church of Ireland College of Education for 25 years) live in the constituency. Emma herself is editor of the Church of Ireland Gazette, a rather different media and role than the Sunday Independent, where she was one of the most literate members of the, em, photogenic 03 Girls team some years ago.
Others will also be looking to get on to this general election ticket. One of these is a councillor in another constituency, namely Punam Rane in Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart, who is transferring to DBS and is expected to go for it. Another is South East Inner City councillor Danny Byrne from Ringsend.
Goldhawk’s money is on Emma Blain to be Geoghegan’s running mate if the party insists on a second candidate but the danger, of course, is that she performs well but not well enough and ends up splitting the vote to disastrous effect.
Another potential, quirky outcome in the lush Blueshirt voting pastures of south Dublin is that if Josepha Madigan is the party’s EU candidate in Dublin and she wins, a potential Dáil space opens up in Dublin Rathdown for Blain to fill. However, opinion here is divided, with some arguing that Madigan’s exit will also mean the exit of the party’s second seat in Rathdown, even though it goes up from three seats to four next time out.
