Leo Varadkar
ONE OF the few real advantages Leo Varadkar has over Micheál Martin is that he is currently the rotating Taoiseach in situ and, therefore, can decide on the date of the next election. Martin and Fianna Fáil are consequently fretting over the strong temptation for Vlad to go to the country quickly and call an election early next year. In fact, they are convinced this is what will happen.
The good news for Vlad is that while recent polls show a see-saw contest between Fine Gael and FF, his party’s base is stronger than that of their rivals, which has lost voters to the left (Sinn Féin) and right (FG). The bad news for Vlad is that the voters have lost their enthusiasm for him.
These conclusions indicate that a bad local election for FG could see a heave against Varadkar straight after those elections in June and in time for the general election in early 2025. Thus, Varadkar could well decide to go for an election early next year, some time before Easter. This would, of course, mitigate against a rebellious membership reaction to bad local election results some months later. It would also avoid a new balance of forces among local councillors who, more than any other voting block, determine the party make-up of the Seanad.
FF overperformed and FG stood still at the last locals, while SF greatly underperformed. These results will not be replicated next summer and both FF and FG TDs who fear losing their seats would like a Dáil and Seanad election before the locals eliminate many of their voters in the subsequent Seanad elections.
Other factors include that Varadkar and his team believe that as time goes on things can only get worse rather than better, while Martin, in particular among FF strategists, believes they should wait until the very last moment to see what might emerge, for good or bad, before the next election. The hope in both parties, of course, is that the budget bribery will be kicking in by early 2024.
FF, however, has become a little windy about recent polls. From the late summer to autumn FG seems to be opening up a small gap of two to three points ahead of FF, while the latter party had the edge during the summer period.
